Miguel Chaiwa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Miguel Chaiwa's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-6.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.56x the positional average in the league (1449 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.9M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1449 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1203
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €6.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -57% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1449 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 23 | 1449 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1203 | 1280 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 2 | 100 | 1 | 0 | 1419 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 55 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edouard Michut Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Mehdi Boudjemaa Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €1.8M | €550k | fell |
| Marko Sapuga Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Mohamed Diomandé Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €1.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Brodie Spencer Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 20 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Flávio Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Dimitrios Kourbelis Super League 1 · 2016 | 23 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Godfred Donsah Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €2.0M | €425k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | Young Boys | Hibernian FC | €800k | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Schaffhausen | Young Boys | Free / loan | €800k |
| 14 Feb 2024 | Young Boys | FC Schaffhausen | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Shamuel FC | Young Boys | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 16 May 2022 | Atletico Lusaka | Shamuel FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Feb 2022 | Shamuel FC | Atletico Lusaka | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.