Dermane Karim
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dermane Karim's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-4.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-4.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (1361 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1361 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €4.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; changed club; team strength up (+219 Elo); league level up (+90 Elo); relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +70% (IQR -2% to +252%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1361 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | AM | 30 | 1361 | 44% | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.34 | 1482 | 1420 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 9 | 688 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.60 | 1437 | 1201 | 0.63 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Pulgar Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €2.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Ivaylo Chochev Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.7M | fell |
| Musa Çağıran Super Lig · 2014 | 22 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Samuel Bastien Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €2.5M | €4.8M | rose |
| Bradley Locko Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €2.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Gil Dias Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €3.2M | €3.0M | flat |
| Filippo Terracciano Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €4.5M | €4.5M | flat |
| Hugo Magnetti Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €2.0M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FC Lorient | Lommel SK | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Lommel SK | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | KV Kortrijk | Lommel SK | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Lommel SK | KV Kortrijk | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Feyenoord U21 | Lommel SK | €2.1M | €300k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Planète Foot | Feyenoord U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | WAFA U19 | Planète Foot | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.