Endrick
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Endrick's performance-implied value at EUR 6.1M-31.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 29.0M-56.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.4M-60.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (1235 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €47.3M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 10% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1235 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.87
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1555
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 10%
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.4M – €60.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -37% to +165%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1235 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RW | 16 | 1224 | 40% | 5 | 7 | 0.88 | 0.49 | 1476 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1456 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 22 | 352 | 10% | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.28 | 1483 | 1764 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 2 | 157 | 1 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Brazil | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1773 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 6 | 360 | 5 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 9 | 135 | 1 | 0 | 1649 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Barcola Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €18.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Patrick Cutrone Serie A · 2018 | 20 | €23.0M | €15.5M | fell |
| Rafael Leão Ligue 1 · 2019 | 20 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Jean-Kévin Augustin Bundesliga · 2018 | 21 | €20.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Giacomo Raspadori Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €15.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Reiss Nelson Bundesliga · 2019 | 20 | €17.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Abde Ezzalzouli Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Kylian Mbappé Ligue 1 · 2017 | 19 | €35.0M | €200M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Lyon | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 1 Jan 2026 | Real Madrid | Lyon | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 21 Jul 2024 | Palmeiras | Real Madrid | €47.5M | €60.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Palmeiras U20 | Palmeiras | Unknown | €20.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Palmeiras U17 | Palmeiras U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.