Brenner
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brenner's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (1185 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €929k vs market €1.3M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1185 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1276
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €656k – €2.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -63% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1185 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | RW | 28 | 1185 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.26 | 1322 | 1275 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 4 | 259 | 0 | 0 | 1288 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mousa Tamari Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Aboubakary Koita Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €700k | €4.5M | rose |
| Edson Farias Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Krisztián Németh Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Kamal Sowah Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 24 | €1.8M | €750k | fell |
| Victor Andrade Liga Portugal · 2018 | 23 | €1.3M | €325k | fell |
| Erkan Kas Super Lig · 2016 | 25 | €1.8M | €300k | fell |
| Youssouph Badji Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 23 | €750k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Alverca | Santa Clara | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Estrela Amadora | Alverca | Free / loan | €125k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Leiria | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €125k |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Estrela U23 | Leiria | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Aug 2022 | EC Bahia | Estrela U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Jan 2022 | Bahia U20 | EC Bahia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2021 | Taubaté | Bahia U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.