Janderson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Janderson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-7.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (2478 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.5M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2478 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €7.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -33% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Göztepe | Super Lig | ST | 32 | 2478 | 81% | 6 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 1269 | 1281 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlo Holse Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €3.2M | €7.0M | rose |
| Koki Ogawa Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| David Akintola Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €2.4M | €2.4M | flat |
| João Figueiredo Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Serginho Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Rachid Ghezzal Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €8.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jelle Vossen Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Kevin Nisbet Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | EC Vitória | Göztepe | €1.5M | €1.2M |
| 19 Apr 2024 | Botafogo | EC Vitória | €900k | €600k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | AD Bahia-BA | Botafogo | €50k | Data unavailable |
| 11 Apr 2022 | SJ Ribamar | AD Bahia-BA | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 10 Jan 2022 | Duque de Caxias | SJ Ribamar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Jun 2021 | Angra-RJ | Duque de Caxias | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Inhumas | Angra-RJ | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.