Oumar Ngom
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oumar Ngom's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-7.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (1672 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.1M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 34% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1672 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1274
- Opponent strength
- 1517
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 34%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €7.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +52% (IQR -47% to +300%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1672 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | CM | 15 | 840 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1517 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | DM | 11 | 832 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 1360 | 1195 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Silva Liga Portugal · 2014 | 21 | €1.7M | €750k | fell |
| Rémi Walter Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Enzo Le Fée Ligue 1 · 2021 | 21 | €5.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Saîf-Eddine Khaoui Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Azzedine Ounahi Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Parfait Guiagon Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 23 | €1.8M | €5.0M | rose |
| Andrea Cambiaso Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €5.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Adryan Ligue 1 · 2016 | 22 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | Estrela Amadora | Lecce | €2.0M | €600k |
| 14 Aug 2025 | Pau FC | Estrela Amadora | €300k | €600k |
| 9 Jul 2023 | Niort B | Pau FC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Niort U19 | Niort B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.