Baran Gezek
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Baran Gezek's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.44x the positional average in the league (1383 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.3M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 25% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1383 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1282
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 25%
- Resale range (24m)
- €863k – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR -11% to +214%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1383 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | CM | 17 | 1383 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1282 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | DM | 20 | 985 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1316 | 1225 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | DM | 10 | 128 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1409 | 1208 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | CM | 5 | 113 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1236 | 1255 | 0.50 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abu Francis Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Mohamed Diomandé Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €1.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Ömer Beyaz Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €650k | €400k | fell |
| Manolis Siopis Super League 1 · 2015 | 21 | €450k | €1.5M | rose |
| Anouar El Azzouzi Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Danil Prutsev Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €1.2M | €4.5M | rose |
| Idrissa Doumbia Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €1.7M | €1.7M | flat |
| Kyrylo Sigeev Premier Liga · 2024 | 20 | €600k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Eyüpspor | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 12 Sept 2025 | Kayserispor | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Kayserispor Yth | Kayserispor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.