Kauã Santos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kauã Santos's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-6.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.7M-12.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-13.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.5M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1085 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1556
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €13.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -80% to +148%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1085 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | GK | 13 | 1085 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1556 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | GK | 9 | 765 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1460 | 1574 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1533 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julen Agirrezabala Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €5.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Julian Pollersbeck Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €2.5M | €525k | fell |
| Etienne Green Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €7.0M | €700k | fell |
| Paulo Gazzaniga Premier League · 2013 | 21 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Wuilker Fariñez Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €700k | fell |
| Alex Meret Serie A · 2018 | 21 | €12.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Álvaro Fernández Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €10.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2023 | Flamengo U20 | Frankfurt | €1.6M | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Flamengo U17 | Flamengo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.