Giovane
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giovane's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-7.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.5M-19.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.4M-22.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (1872 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €13.3M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1872 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.61
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1331
- Opponent strength
- 1480
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.4M – €22.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -50% to +82%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | ST | 21 | 1541 | 45% | 3 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.61 | 1480 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | SS | 12 | 331 | 10% | 0 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 1523 | 1618 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Moleiro Laliga · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Bryan Zaragoza Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mauro Icardi Serie A · 2013 | 20 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Zito Luvumbo Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Riccardo Orsolini Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €10.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Mathieu Cafaro Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €7.5M | €7.0M | flat |
| Mattia Destro Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Ishak Belfodil Serie A · 2013 | 21 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Hellas Verona | Napoli | €2.0M | €12.0M |
| 8 Jul 2025 | Corinthians | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Capivariano | Corinthians | €550k | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jul 2022 | Corinthians U20 | Capivariano | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jul 2021 | Capivariano | Corinthians U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | RB Brasil U20 | Capivariano | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.