Alberto Moleiro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alberto Moleiro's performance-implied value at EUR 10.6M-38.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 38.5M-67.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.6M-69.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (2491 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €54.6M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 5% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2491 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 5%
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.6M – €69.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+230 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -9% to +43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LW | 37 | 2491 | 73% | 10 | 6 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 1495 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | UD Las Palmas | Laliga | LW | 35 | 2728 | 80% | 6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.41 | 1527 | 1314 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | UD Las Palmas | Laliga | LW | 28 | 1809 | 53% | 3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.46 | 1487 | 1344 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 7 | 247 | 0 | 0 | 1515 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | UD Las Palmas | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | UD Las Palmas | 3 | 99 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Icardi Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €32.0M | €95.0M | rose |
| Julian Brandt Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €80.0M | €140M | rose |
| Rafael Leão Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €90.0M | €70.0M | fell |
| Erik Lamela Serie A · 2013 | 21 | €23.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Maximilian Beier Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Timo Werner Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €60.0M | €64.0M | flat |
| Brennan Johnson Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €48.0M | €30.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | UD Las Palmas | Villarreal | €16.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Las Palmas U19 | UD Las Palmas | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Las Palmas Yth. | Las Palmas U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sobradillo U19 | Las Palmas Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.