Josh King
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Josh King's performance-implied value at EUR 8.7M-41.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.9M-42.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.5M-49.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1304 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €30.3M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1304 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1576
- Opponent strength
- 1579
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €17.5M – €49.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +25% (IQR -33% to +115%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1304 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fulham FC | Premier League | AM | 32 | 1304 | 38% | 1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 1579 | 1576 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Fulham FC | Premier League | AM | 8 | 127 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1468 | 1555 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Miley Premier League · 2024 | 18 | €22.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Emile Smith Rowe Premier League · 2021 | 21 | €18.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Facundo Buonanotte Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Harvey Barnes Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €12.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Joe Willock Premier League · 2020 | 21 | €16.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Elliot Anderson Premier League · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Carles Aleñá Laliga · 2020 | 22 | €18.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Tariq Lamptey Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Fulham U18 | Fulham | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Fulham Youth | Fulham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.