Elliot Anderson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Elliot Anderson's performance-implied value at EUR 42.2M-61.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 50.2M-125.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 47.4M-91.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.34x the positional average in the league (3335 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €80.2M vs market €75.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3335 (98% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1596
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €47.4M – €91.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; team strength up (+63 Elo); role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -29% to +34%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | DM | 38 | 3335 | 98% | 4 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 1596 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CM | 37 | 2743 | 80% | 2 | 6 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 1563 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CM | 21 | 1024 | 30% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1546 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle United | Premier League | AM | 22 | 398 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 1524 | 1678 | 1.23 |
| 2020/21 | Newcastle United | Premier League | AM | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 1647 | 1500 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 12 | 833 | 0 | 1 | 1548 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 3 | 248 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 301 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 2 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 39 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €90.0M | €120M | rose |
| Douglas Luiz Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Martin Ødegaard Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €90.0M | €85.0M | flat |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €55.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Granit Xhaka Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €40.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Bukayo Saka Premier League · 2022 | 21 | €65.0M | €140M | rose |
| James Maddison Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €40.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €35.0M | €45.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Newcastle | Nott'm Forest | €41.2M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Newcastle U21 | Newcastle | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 May 2022 | Bristol Rovers | Newcastle U23 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Newcastle U23 | Bristol Rovers | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Newcastle U18 | Newcastle U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Newcastle Yth. | Newcastle U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.