Lewis Miley
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lewis Miley's performance-implied value at EUR 22.1M-43.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.2M-36.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.4M-64.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1494 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.0M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1494 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1586
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.4M – €64.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +50% (IQR +21% to +89%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1494 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CM | 23 | 1494 | 44% | 1 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 1586 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CM | 14 | 304 | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 1593 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CM | 17 | 1208 | 35% | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 1578 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CM | 1 | 14 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1566 | 1678 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 7 | 340 | 1 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 236 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 4 | 215 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 3 | 171 | 0 | 1 | 1671 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emile Smith Rowe Premier League · 2021 | 21 | €18.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Kobbie Mainoo Premier League · 2024 | 19 | €50.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Harvey Barnes Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €12.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Joe Willock Premier League · 2020 | 21 | €16.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Pape Matar Sarr Premier League · 2024 | 22 | €45.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Dennis Geiger Bundesliga · 2020 | 22 | €11.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Tom Davies Premier League · 2017 | 19 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €15.0M | €24.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Newcastle U21 | Newcastle | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Newcastle U18 | Newcastle U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Newcastle Yth. | Newcastle U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.