Matte Smets
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matte Smets's performance-implied value at EUR 4.5M-20.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.1M-13.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.6M-16.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.1M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2700 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1471
- Opponent strength
- 1365
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.6M – €16.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-64 Elo); relative output up 87% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +55% (IQR +15% to +129%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1365 | 1471 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 29 | 2483 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1374 | 1535 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1390 | 1324 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 14 | 1069 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1299 | 1316 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 12 | 1110 | 1 | 1 | 1458 |
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KRC Genk | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1346 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1420 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willian Pacho Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 22 | €11.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Leander Dendoncker Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 23 | €17.0M | €22.5M | rose |
| Bruno Viana Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Bruno Martins Indi Eredivisie · 2013 | 21 | €5.0M | €11.5M | rose |
| Nicolas N'Koulou Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €13.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Kristoffer Ajer Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 23 | €7.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Terence Kongolo Eredivisie · 2016 | 22 | €5.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Sven van Beek Eredivisie · 2016 | 22 | €5.0M | €5.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Sint-Truiden | Genk | €2.3M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | St.Truiden U21 | Sint-Truiden | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | St. Truiden U18 | St.Truiden U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | STVV Youth | St. Truiden U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | KRC Genk Youth | STVV Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.