Willian Pacho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Willian Pacho's performance-implied value at EUR 25.7M-59.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 61.2M-112.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 56.4M-90.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €82.3M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1915 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1468
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €56.4M – €90.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -17% to +68%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1915 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1468 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 28 | 2130 | 70% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1462 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1526 | 1498 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 33 | 2899 | 95% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1301 | 1497 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 16 | 1440 | 2 | 1 | 1694 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ecuador | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 17 | 1542 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 249 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1375 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Royal Antwerp FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1340 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jérôme Boateng Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €40.0M | €38.0M | flat |
| Presnel Kimpembe Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €30.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Stefan Savic Laliga · 2018 | 27 | €40.0M | €25.5M | fell |
| Benjamin Pavard Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €30.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| John Stones Premier League · 2017 | 23 | €35.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Eric Bailly Premier League · 2017 | 23 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Rúben Dias Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €80.0M | €65.0M | flat |
| Raphaël Varane Laliga · 2016 | 23 | €30.0M | €70.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2024 | Frankfurt | PSG | €40.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Royal Antwerp | Frankfurt | €13.7M | €11.0M |
| 28 Jan 2022 | Independiente | Royal Antwerp | €5.6M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Independiente B | Independiente | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | IDV U20 | Independiente B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.