Kristoffer Ajer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kristoffer Ajer's performance-implied value at EUR 15.8M-38.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.1M-24.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-16.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.5M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1809 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1643
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €16.3M
Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> CB; relative output up 58% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -39% to -7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 27 | 1809 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1643 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | RB | 24 | 1443 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1588 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 28 | 1833 | 54% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1614 | 1500 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 9 | 766 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1537 | 1623 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 24 | 1987 | 58% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1578 | 1483 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 31 | 2683 | 90% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1289 | 1534 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 28 | 2508 | 93% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 1248 | 1608 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 23 | 1715 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1277 | 1525 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 19 | 1575 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1258 | 1570 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 16 | 1440 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1251 | 1200 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 152 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 5 | 410 | 0 | 1 | 1592 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1322 |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1380 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 8 | 675 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | 1381 |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 1376 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | 1400 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1307 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 3 | 160 | 0 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 5 | 436 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1415 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2016/17 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1332 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Ben Davies Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Sead Kolasinac Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €16.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Aritz Elustondo Laliga · 2021 | 27 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Fabián Balbuena Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jamaal Lascelles Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mamadou Sakho Premier League · 2016 | 26 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Marc Cucurella Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2021 | Celtic | Brentford | €15.7M | €7.0M |
| 31 May 2017 | Kilmarnock FC | Celtic | Free / loan | €800k |
| 20 Jan 2017 | Celtic | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | IK Start | Celtic | €600k | €800k |
| 15 Jul 2014 | Lillestrøm Yth. | IK Start | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.