Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1857 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €755k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1857 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1214
- Opponent strength
- 1333
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €774k – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; relative output down 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +50% (IQR -5% to +111%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | AM | 29 | 1857 | 69% | 4 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.43 | 1333 | 1214 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | AM | 24 | 1052 | 39% | 3 | 5 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 1329 | 1233 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 8 | 411 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 5 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andriy Totovytskyi Premier Liga · 2015 | 22 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
| Kirill Kravtsov Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Thomas Bruns Eredivisie · 2015 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Nick Bätzner Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €1.5M | €1.1M | fell |
| Mousa Tamari Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €1.2M | €8.0M | rose |
| Ryan Thomas Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €1.3M | €2.5M | rose |
| Mattheus Liga Portugal · 2017 | 23 | €1.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Rúben Pinto Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2024 | Sepahan | Dinamo Makhach. | €900k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sepahan FC U20 | Sepahan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Sepahan FC U17 | Sepahan FC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Padideh S U17 | Sepahan FC U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.