Oso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oso's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-6.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-14.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-18.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.4M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1409 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1397
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.0M – €18.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -44% to +68%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1409 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LB | 21 | 1409 | 41% | 2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 1493 | 1397 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 3 | 239 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sime Vrsaljko Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €7.5M | €16.0M | rose |
| Jordan Torunarigha Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €9.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Kevin Danso Bundesliga · 2019 | 21 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Diego Coppola Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Mert Müldür Serie A · 2020 | 21 | €4.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| César Montes Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €8.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Maciej Rybus Premier Liga · 2013 | 24 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Kyriakos Papadopoulos Bundesliga · 2017 | 25 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | Sevilla Atl. | Sevilla FC | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 12 Jul 2022 | Málaga U19 | Sevilla Atl. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.