Ibrahima Diaby
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ibrahima Diaby's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-6.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (647 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 8.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €3.5M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +76% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 45% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 647 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1325
- Opponent strength
- 1361
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 45%
- Resale range (24m)
- €989k – €6.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -38% to +98%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 647 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 20 | 647 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1361 | 1325 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | Cercle Brugge | 6 | 362 | 2 | 0 | 1230 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Boonen Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 20 | €900k | €350k | fell |
| Nuno Santos Liga Portugal · 2020 | 21 | €1.3M | €2.5M | rose |
| Oston Urunov Premier Liga · 2021 | 21 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Okay Yokuşlu Super Lig · 2014 | 20 | €2.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Zé Carlos Liga Portugal · 2023 | 22 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Martin Ødegaard Eredivisie · 2017 | 19 | €1.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Danil Krugovoy Premier Liga · 2019 | 21 | €700k | €1.5M | rose |
| Pieter Gerkens Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 19 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Paris SG U23 | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Paris SG U19 | Paris SG U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.