Joseph Jones
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joseph Jones's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €638k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1073 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1219
- Opponent strength
- 1186
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €385k – €1.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +27% (IQR -30% to +100%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1073 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | CB | 12 | 1073 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1186 | 1219 | 0.25 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Khrypchuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Oleksandr Martynyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €500k | €1.5M | rose |
| Igor Snurnitsyn Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Fatih Kurucuk Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Adil Demirbağ Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €1.2M | €2.3M | rose |
| Bogdan Slyubyk Premier Liga · 2023 | 19 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| Jayden Richardson Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 23 | €350k | €325k | flat |
| Rocky Bushiri Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 24 | €400k | €900k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Plaza Amador | Kryvbas | Free / loan | €275k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Pl. Amador II | Plaza Amador | Unknown | €100k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.