Assane Diao
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Assane Diao's performance-implied value at EUR 5.6M-23.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.5M-42.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.9M-48.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (1084 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €32.4M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1084 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.9M – €48.8M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+111 Elo); role change LW -> RW; relative output down 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -36% to +173%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1084 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | RW | 17 | 1084 | 32% | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 1484 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Como 1907 | Serie A | LW | 15 | 1259 | 37% | 8 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.73 | 1532 | 1461 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 10 | 272 | 8% | 1 | 2 | 0.99 | 0.58 | 1503 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 18 | 1052 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.29 | 1450 | 1520 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 3 | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 62 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1283 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 251 | 1 | 0 | 1489 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 110 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €24.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Rafael Leão Serie A · 2020 | 21 | €20.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Lautaro Martínez Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €30.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Ilias Akhomach Laliga · 2024 | 20 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Justin Kluivert Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Keita Baldé Serie A · 2015 | 20 | €8.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Lazar Markovic Premier League · 2015 | 21 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Mason Greenwood Premier League · 2022 | 21 | €50.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2025 | Real Betis | Como | €12.0M | €9.0M |
| 3 Oct 2023 | Betis Deportivo | Real Betis | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Dec 2022 | Betis U19 | Betis Deportivo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Betis Yth. | Betis U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Balón de Cádiz | Real Betis Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Fl. Negra S19 | Balón de Cádiz | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Badajoz U19 | Fl. Negra S19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.