Lautaro Martínez

The model rates Lautaro Martínez's performance-implied value at EUR 37.6M-100.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 53.3M-95.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 42.8M-68.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (2178 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2178 (64% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.95

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.51

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

99 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.93 (rank 4)

Team strength (Elo)

1722

Opponent strength

1489

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€42.8M – €68.1M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-96 Elo); relative output up 61% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -43% to +0%).

• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.