Ayoni Santos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ayoni Santos's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-6.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.51x the positional average in the league (1571 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 21 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.0M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 32% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1571 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1289
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 32%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €6.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -26% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1571 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 26 | 1571 | 51% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 1289 | 1213 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 139 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Diomandé Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €1.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Edouard Michut Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Dimitrios Kourbelis Super League 1 · 2016 | 23 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Brodie Spencer Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 20 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Mehdi Boudjemaa Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €1.8M | €550k | fell |
| Simon Tibbling Eredivisie · 2015 | 21 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Hannes Van Der Bruggen Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Yevgen Pavlyuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €700k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2025 | Sparta U21 | Sparta R. | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Sparta R. U18 | Sparta U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sparta Youth | Sparta R. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.