Yevgen Pavlyuk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yevgen Pavlyuk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.5M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2522 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1184
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €772k – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts; changed club; team strength up (+98 Elo); relative output up 330% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -53% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | Premier Liga | CB | 29 | 2522 | 93% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1184 | 1186 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Vorskla Poltava | Premier Liga | CB | 19 | 1545 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1203 | 1088 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Vorskla Poltava | Premier Liga | CB | 29 | 2387 | 88% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1273 | 1157 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Vorskla Poltava | Premier Liga | DM | 17 | 1473 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1291 | 1296 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 4 | 293 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Vorskla Poltava | 4 | 280 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vorskla Poltava | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1348 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yvan Dibango Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Carles Soria Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Bogdan Slyubyk Premier Liga · 2024 | 20 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Karim Hafez Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Tymur Stetskov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Ilya Putrya Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €500k | €700k | rose |
| Casper Højer Superliga · 2019 | 25 | €700k | €2.5M | rose |
| Apostolos Diamantis Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €700k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Vorskla Poltava | Metalist 1925 | €520k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Vorskla U19 | Vorskla Poltava | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Kryvbas | Vorskla U19 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 5 Feb 2022 | Vorskla U19 | Kryvbas | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Vorskla II | Vorskla U19 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Vorskla U19 | Vorskla II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Aug 2019 | MFA Munkach U19 | Vorskla U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.