Dro Fernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dro Fernández's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-46.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.0M-24.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.1M-58.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.35x the positional average in the league (771 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 70.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €16.8M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +178% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 59% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 771 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1814
- Opponent strength
- 1416
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 59%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.1M – €58.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +27% (IQR -9% to +87%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 771 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | AM | 12 | 682 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1416 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | AM | 4 | 89 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1515 | 1787 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 1 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 1517 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Bentancur Serie A · 2018 | 21 | €15.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Kristjan Asllani Serie A · 2023 | 21 | €12.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Renato Sanches Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Tyler Adams Bundesliga · 2020 | 21 | €11.5M | €17.0M | rose |
| Adrien Rabiot Ligue 1 · 2016 | 21 | €10.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Stefano Sturaro Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Paulo Bernardo Liga Portugal · 2022 | 20 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Carles Aleñá Laliga · 2019 | 21 | €30.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2026 | Barcelona | PSG | €8.2M | €10.0M |
| 1 Oct 2025 | Barça Atlètic | Barcelona | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Barça U19 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Barça U16 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Val Miñor Yth. | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.