Tyler Adams
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tyler Adams's performance-implied value at EUR 25.1M-44.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.7M-28.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.7M-28.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (1779 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €24.8M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1779 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1596
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.7M – €28.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+60 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -23% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1779 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | DM | 25 | 1779 | 52% | 2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1596 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | DM | 28 | 1965 | 57% | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1586 | 1582 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | DM | 3 | 118 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1491 | 1496 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Leeds United | Premier League | DM | 24 | 2157 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1563 | 1418 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | DM | 24 | 1345 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1493 | 1663 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | DM | 27 | 1854 | 61% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1524 | 1657 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | DM | 14 | 956 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1506 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | DM | 10 | 723 | 24% | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1418 | 1650 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | United States | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 4 | 389 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 293 | 0 | 0 | 1772 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 269 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 4 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 286 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 283 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 3 | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1723 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Schlupp Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Vitaly Janelt Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| James Milner Premier League · 2013 | 27 | €17.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Ander Herrera Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €28.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Kerem Demirbay Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €24.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Fred Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €20.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Aaron Ramsey Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €40.0M | €14.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2023 | Leeds | Bournemouth | €26.9M | €18.0M |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Leipzig | Leeds | €17.0M | €17.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | New York | Leipzig | €2.6M | €4.5M |
| 30 Nov 2016 | NYRB II | New York | Free / loan | €50k |
| 26 Mar 2016 | New York | NYRB II | Free / loan | €50k |
| 3 Nov 2015 | NYRB II | New York | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 19 Mar 2015 | NYRB Academy | NYRB II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.