Thibaut Courtois
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thibaut Courtois's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-18.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.4M-15.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-7.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 99th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €7.3M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2880 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €7.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -71% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1472 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 30 | 2700 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1493 | 1764 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 4 | 333 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1396 | 1867 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 31 | 2790 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1500 | 1737 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1517 | 1812 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1548 | 1788 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1543 | 1812 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 27 | 2430 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1540 | 1676 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1532 | 1667 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1530 | 1756 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | GK | 23 | 2020 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1518 | 1625 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | GK | 32 | 2814 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1547 | 1754 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1530 | 1812 | 1.19 |
| 2012/13 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1497 | 1652 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 945 | 0 | 2 | 1630 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1755 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 12 | 1110 | 0 | 0 | 1714 |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1709 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Super Cup | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1595 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 13 | 1230 | 0 | 0 | 1723 |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 7 | 585 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1703 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 8 | 720 | 0 | 1 | 1722 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Community Shield | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1762 |
| 2015/16 | Community Shield | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1729 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 12 | 1110 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Buffon Serie A · 2013 | 35 | €7.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Víctor Valdés Laliga · 2013 | 31 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Wojciech Szczesny Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Keylor Navas Ligue 1 · 2021 | 35 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Petr Cech Premier League · 2014 | 32 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Pepe Reina Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Marc-André ter Stegen Laliga · 2024 | 32 | €28.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Yann Sommer Serie A · 2024 | 36 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2018 | Chelsea | Real Madrid | €35.0M | €65.0M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Atlético | Chelsea | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 27 Jul 2011 | Chelsea | Atlético | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 26 Jul 2011 | Genk | Chelsea | €8.9M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | KRC Genk U19 | Genk | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | KRC Genk U17 | KRC Genk U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | KRC Genk Youth | KRC Genk U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.