Arsène Kouassi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arsène Kouassi's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-14.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.3M-23.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.2M-26.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.43x the positional average in the league (2612 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €18.3M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 16% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2612 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 16%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.2M – €26.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -2% to +71%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | LM | 31 | 2612 | 85% | 2 | 8 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 1478 | 1420 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Faivre Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Ellyes Skhiri Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €10.0M | €6.8M | fell |
| Cheick Doucouré Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €15.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Roberto Pereyra Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €10.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Carlos Augusto Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €26.0M | rose |
| Morten Frendrup Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Lucas Torreira Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €30.0M | €36.0M | rose |
| Ludovic Blas Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | AC Ajaccio | FC Lorient | €1.2M | €1.5M |
| 4 Sept 2024 | AC Ajaccio B | AC Ajaccio | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Ajaccio U19 | AC Ajaccio B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.