El Hadji Malick Diouf
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates El Hadji Malick Diouf's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-32.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.9M-41.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.0M-47.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €31.0M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2711 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1613
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.0M – €47.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -24% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | LB | 32 | 2711 | 79% | 0 | 5 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 1613 | 1520 | 1.30 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 5 | 412 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 2 | 144 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | SK Slavia Prague | 8 | 598 | 0 | 1 | 1521 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SK Slavia Prague | 4 | 345 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Diop Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €28.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Shkodran Mustafi Laliga · 2016 | 24 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Theo Hernández Laliga · 2017 | 20 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Emerson Royal Laliga · 2021 | 22 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Kurt Zouma Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €25.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Clément Lenglet Laliga · 2018 | 23 | €25.0M | €48.0M | rose |
| Mohammed Salisu Laliga · 2020 | 21 | €11.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Destiny Udogie Premier League · 2024 | 22 | €45.0M | €30.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2025 | Slavia Praha | West Ham | €22.0M | €18.0M |
| 11 Jan 2024 | Tromsø IL | Slavia Praha | €5.6M | €1.3M |
| 21 Feb 2023 | Academy Mawade Wade | Tromsø IL | €50k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.