
Destiny Udogie
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Destiny Udogie's performance-implied value at EUR 15.8M-25.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.7M-40.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.5M-32.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €31.0M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1342 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1564
- Opponent strength
- 1598
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.5M – €32.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; relative output up 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -51% to +35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1342 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | LB | 20 | 1342 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1598 | 1564 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | LB | 25 | 1932 | 56% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1582 | 1564 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | LB | 28 | 2398 | 70% | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 1576 | 1588 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | LM | 33 | 2711 | 79% | 3 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 1461 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | LM | 35 | 2484 | 73% | 5 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 1472 | 1436 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | LB | 6 | 165 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1626 | 1369 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 311 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 769 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reece James Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €65.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Benoît Badiashile Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €30.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Emerson Royal Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Luke Thomas Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Héctor Bellerín Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €32.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Lloyd Kelly Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €18.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Kieran Tierney Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €20.0M | €32.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Udinese | Tottenham | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Tottenham | Udinese | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Udinese | Tottenham | €18.0M | €17.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hellas Verona | Udinese | €5.2M | €17.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Udinese | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 15 Jul 2021 | Hellas Verona | Udinese | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Verona U19 | Hellas Verona | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hellas U17 | Verona U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hellas Verona Y | Hellas U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.