Destiny Udogie

23 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Italy
Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League · Foot: left · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€30.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€20.7M – €40.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€15.8M – €25.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€15.5M – €32.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€24.2M – €4.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€20.7M – €40.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€15.8M – €25.6M
Projected value (24 months)€15.5M – €32.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€30.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Destiny Udogie's performance-implied value at EUR 15.8M-25.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.7M-40.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.5M-32.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 9

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh87.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.6 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €31.0M vs market €30.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-33% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €45.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1342 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
87 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1564
Opponent strength
1598
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€15.5M – €32.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; relative output up 51% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -51% to +35%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1342 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueLB20134239%010.070.12159815641.30
2024/25Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueLB25193256%010.050.07158215641.23
2023/24Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueLB28239870%230.190.17157615881.14
2022/23Udinese CalcioSerie ALM33271179%340.230.23146114210.94
2021/22Udinese CalcioSerie ALM35248473%530.290.35147214360.89
2020/21Hellas VeronaSerie ALB61655%000.000.15162613690.90

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur7311001559
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur9769001547
2023/24Fa CupTottenham Hotspur218000—
2022/23Italy CupUdinese Calcio14500—
2021/22Italy CupUdinese Calcio221000—
2020/21Italy CupHellas Verona19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Reece James
Premier League · 2023
24€65.0M€30.0Mfell
Benoît Badiashile
Premier League · 2024
23€30.0M€15.0Mfell
Emerson Royal
Premier League · 2024
25€18.0M€5.0Mfell
Luke Thomas
Premier League · 2023
22€12.0M€6.0Mfell
Héctor Bellerín
Premier League · 2020
25€32.0M€20.0Mfell
Rayan Aït-Nouri
Premier League · 2023
22€22.0M€35.0Mrose
Lloyd Kelly
Premier League · 2024
26€18.0M€23.0Mrose
Kieran Tierney
Premier League · 2020
23€20.0M€32.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2023UdineseTottenhamFree / loan€25.0M
16 Aug 2022TottenhamUdineseFree / loan€17.0M
16 Aug 2022UdineseTottenham€18.0M€17.0M
1 Jul 2022Hellas VeronaUdinese€5.2M€17.0M
30 Jun 2022UdineseHellas VeronaFree / loan€17.0M
15 Jul 2021Hellas VeronaUdineseFree / loan€1.0M
1 Sept 2020Verona U19Hellas VeronaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Hellas U17Verona U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Hellas Verona YHellas U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.