Juma Bah
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Juma Bah's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-30.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.6M-16.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.5M-25.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €11.8M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1954 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1358
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.5M – €25.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; changed club; relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -36% to +58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 26 | 1954 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1484 | 1358 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | CB | 12 | 863 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1494 | 1216 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 10 | 686 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1462 | 1484 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 6 | 526 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Estève Ligue 1 · 2022 | 20 | €4.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Andrea Carboni Serie A · 2022 | 21 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Benoît Badiashile Ligue 1 · 2020 | 19 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Filippo Romagna Serie A · 2018 | 21 | €7.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Armel Bella-Kotchap Bundesliga · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Étienne Youté Kinkoué Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Iván Fresneda Laliga · 2023 | 19 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mohamed Simakan Ligue 1 · 2020 | 20 | €7.2M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Nice | Man City | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Man City | Nice | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Lens | Man City | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Man City | Lens | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Real Valladolid | Man City | €6.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | AIK Freetong | Real Valladolid | €125k | €1.0M |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Real Valladolid | AIK Freetong | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 26 Aug 2024 | AIK Freetong | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | SLIFA | AIK Freetong | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.