Maxime Estève
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maxime Estève's performance-implied value at EUR 5.7M-22.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.3M-41.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.2M-34.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €30.6M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2938 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1618
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.2M – €34.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +14% (IQR -9% to +42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 34 | 2938 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1618 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 16 | 1312 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1564 | 1366 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 12 | 998 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1507 | 1434 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1644 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1459 | 1440 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 1857 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1433 | 1366 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tosin Adarabioyo Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €12.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Ben Godfrey Premier League · 2020 | 22 | €11.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Ben White Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €28.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Vitaliy Mykolenko Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Benjamin Pavard Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Maximilian Kilman Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Auston Trusty Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Marco Friedl Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €7.5M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Montpellier | Burnley | €12.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Burnley | Montpellier | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Montpellier | Burnley | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Montpellier B | Montpellier | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Montpellier U19 | Montpellier B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Montpellier U17 | Montpellier U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Montpellier For | Montpellier U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Canet FC Jugend | Montpellier For | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.