Iván Fresneda
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iván Fresneda's performance-implied value at EUR 5.4M-20.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.8M-22.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.9M-31.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €17.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 18% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1605 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 18%
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.9M – €31.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; role change RM -> RB; relative output down 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +14% (IQR -25% to +50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1605 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RB | 23 | 1605 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1319 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RM | 18 | 957 | 31% | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 1307 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RM | 5 | 34 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1362 | 1675 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | RB | 22 | 1775 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1523 | 1372 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 10 | 920 | 0 | 1 | 1656 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 3 | 239 | 0 | 0 | 1591 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 4 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 2 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morato Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Perr Schuurs Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €8.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Noussair Mazraoui Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €17.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Jaïro Riedewald Eredivisie · 2016 | 20 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Thomas Beelen Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ferro Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €14.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Alex Telles Super Lig · 2015 | 23 | €6.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Kenny Tete Eredivisie · 2016 | 21 | €5.5M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2023 | Real Valladolid | Sporting | €9.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Valladolid Prom | Real Valladolid | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Valladolid U19 | Valladolid Prom | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Valladolid Yth. | Valladolid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Leganés Youth | Valladolid Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | R.Madrid Yth. | Leganés Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.