Samir El Mourabet
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samir El Mourabet's performance-implied value at EUR 3.7M-19.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.4M-33.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.2M-43.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (2137 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €28.2M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 33% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2137 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 33%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.2M – €43.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -4% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2137 | 70% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1464 | 1502 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Morocco | 3 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Chaïbi Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Bernardo Silva Ligue 1 · 2016 | 22 | €15.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Manu Koné Bundesliga · 2022 | 21 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Hugo Larsson Bundesliga · 2024 | 20 | €28.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Destiny Udogie Serie A · 2023 | 21 | €25.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Mohamed Camara Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €30.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Max Meyer Bundesliga · 2016 | 21 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Ivan Ilić Serie A · 2022 | 21 | €14.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | R. Strasbourg B | R. Strasbourg | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Strasbourg U19 | R. Strasbourg B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | ASP Vauban Jgd | Strasbourg U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.