Hugo Larsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Larsson's performance-implied value at EUR 7.4M-32.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.7M-34.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.1M-35.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (1820 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €24.1M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 7% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1820 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 7%
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.1M – €35.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo); role change CM -> DM; relative output up 70% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -29% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | DM | 25 | 1820 | 59% | 2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 1476 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CM | 33 | 2403 | 79% | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1506 | 1574 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CM | 29 | 1887 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1527 | 1498 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 517 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 144 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 11 | 818 | 3 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 221 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 117 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1378 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Ilić Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €19.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Samuele Ricci Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Gaetano Castrovilli Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Younès Belhanda Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €14.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Karol Linetty Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €15.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Orel Mangala Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €22.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Aimar Oroz Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Florian Neuhaus Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Malmö | Frankfurt | €9.0M | €9.0M |
| 4 Mar 2022 | Malmö FF U19 | Malmö | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Malmö FF U17 | Malmö FF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.