Nazar Domchak
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nazar Domchak's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-8.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-11.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €5.7M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 42% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2430 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1179
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 42%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €11.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +131% (IQR +28% to +273%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | GK | 27 | 2430 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1179 | 1213 | 0.25 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| İrfan Can Eğribayat Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.3M | €1.9M | fell |
| Doğan Alemdar Super Lig · 2021 | 19 | €2.4M | €4.0M | rose |
| Christos Mandas Super League 1 · 2023 | 22 | €1.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Oliver Christensen Superliga · 2021 | 22 | €1.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Kamil Grabara Superliga · 2021 | 22 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Ersin Destanoğlu Super Lig · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mads Hermansen Superliga · 2022 | 22 | €2.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Dmytro Riznyk Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €2.0M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Karpaty Lviv | Slavia Praha | €5.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Aug 2025 | Karpaty U19 | Karpaty Lviv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Karpaty-2 Lviv | Karpaty U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Apr 2023 | UFK Lviv | Karpaty-2 Lviv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.