Ersin Destanoğlu

25 yrs · Goalkeeper · Türkiye
Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 195 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€4.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.6M – €6.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€534k – €2.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.9M – €6.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€6.2M – €479k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.6M – €6.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€534k – €2.1M
Projected value (24 months)€1.9M – €6.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ersin Destanoğlu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-6.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 57

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage36.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.5 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €3.5M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-8% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2250 (74% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
36 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1350
Opponent strength
1274
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.9M – €6.8M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +13% (IQR -22% to +27%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigGK25225074%000.000.00127413500.40
2024/25Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigGK21806%000.000.00133813400.39
2023/24Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigGK1187426%000.000.00127113360.45
2022/23Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigGK981025%000.000.00128015170.50
2021/22Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigGK32279182%000.000.00126313420.42
2020/21Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigGK35311587%000.000.00126514080.37
2019/20Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigGK872024%000.000.00128514010.45

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü190001320
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü3270001551
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü5450001666
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü190001512

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Premier Liga · 2024
26€2.5M€4.0Mrose
Patrick Pentz
Superliga · 2024
27€3.0M€2.2Mfell
Vasilios Barkas
Super League 1 · 2019
25€2.5M€2.8Mflat
Bilal Bayazıt
Super Lig · 2023
24€1.7M€2.0Mflat
Oleksiy Shevchenko
Premier Liga · 2017
25€1.5M€1.2Mfell
Yohann Thuram
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
27€1.7M€500kfell
Kjell Scherpen
Eredivisie · 2023
23€2.0M€5.0Mrose
Bruno Varela
Liga Portugal · 2021
27€3.5M€4.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2018Besiktas U21BesiktasUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2017Besiktas U16Besiktas U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Besiktas YthBesiktas U16UnknownData unavailable
3 Oct 2013Bayrampasa YthBesiktas Yth€6kData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Ersin Destanoğlu · MoneyballAI