Dmytro Riznyk

27 yrs · Goalkeeper · Ukraine
FC Shakhtar Donetsk · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 Dec 2027
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.6M – €9.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.7M – €5.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.1M – €9.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€8.2M – €472k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.6M – €9.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.7M – €5.1M
Projected value (24 months)€3.1M – €9.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dmytro Riznyk's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.6M-9.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-9.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.

Bargain Index: 44

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average62.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €5.6M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-34% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2160 (80% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.01
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
63 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1420
Opponent strength
1152
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.1M – €9.8M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -54% to +4%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
37 (all positions)
Relative output kept
87%–128%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
86%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaGK24216080%010.040.01115214200.25
2024/25FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaGK24212179%000.000.00118614140.28
2023/24FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaGK27243090%000.000.00124714970.34
2022/23Vorskla PoltavaPremier LigaGK15135050%000.000.00128012960.38
2021/22Vorskla PoltavaPremier LigaGK17153094%000.000.00129413190.45
2020/21Vorskla PoltavaPremier LigaGK24216092%000.000.00129612910.49
2019/20Vorskla PoltavaPremier LigaGK1090045%000.000.01135612160.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk6570001337
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk2210001315
2025/26Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk19000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk8720001633
2024/25Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk445000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6540001650
2023/24Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk436000—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk2180001543
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingVorskla Poltava2210001355
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingVorskla Poltava2210001369
2021/22Ukrainian CupVorskla Poltava19000—
2020/21Ukrainian CupVorskla Poltava19000—
2019/20Ukrainian CupVorskla Poltava441900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Uğurcan Çakır
Super Lig · 2021
25€19.0M€12.0Mfell
José Sá
Super League 1 · 2021
28€7.5M€18.0Mrose
Altay Bayındır
Super Lig · 2021
23€14.0M€11.0Mfell
Loris Karius
Super Lig · 2020
27€3.2M€1.5Mfell
Georgios Athanasiadis
Super League 1 · 2023
30€1.8M€800kfell
Georgiy Bushchan
Premier Liga · 2022
28€9.0M€7.0Mfell
Roberto
Super League 1 · 2015
29€8.0M€2.0Mfell
Dominik Kotarski
Super League 1 · 2023
23€2.5M€9.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
10 Feb 2023Vorskla PoltavaShakhtar D.€3.0M€2.0M
1 Jul 2019Vorskla IIVorskla PoltavaUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2018Vorskla U19Vorskla IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Vorskla U17Vorskla U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Dmytro Riznyk · MoneyballAI