Mads Hermansen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mads Hermansen's performance-implied value at EUR 6.7M-20.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.0M-21.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.3M-21.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.2M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1620 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1609
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.3M – €21.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; changed club; team strength up (+154 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +11% (IQR -2% to +45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1620 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | GK | 18 | 1620 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1609 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Leicester City | Premier League | GK | 27 | 2385 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1573 | 1367 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | GK | 17 | 1530 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1295 | 1329 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | GK | 19 | 1710 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1270 | 1362 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Bröndby IF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Álex Remiro Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €12.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Dean Henderson Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Robert Sánchez Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Gerónimo Rulli Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Djordje Petrovic Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Tim Krul Premier League · 2013 | 25 | €8.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Fraser Forster Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2025 | Leicester | West Ham | €20.8M | €15.0M |
| 18 Jul 2023 | Bröndby IF | Leicester | €9.0M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bröndby IF U19 | Bröndby IF | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Bröndby IF U17 | Bröndby IF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Naesby BK Youth | Bröndby IF U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.