Jesús Rodríguez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jesús Rodríguez's performance-implied value at EUR 6.3M-39.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.4M-44.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.5M-54.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (1735 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €30.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1735 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.57
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1465
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.5M – €54.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; changed club; relative output up 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -26% to +107%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1735 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | LW | 31 | 1735 | 51% | 2 | 9 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 1465 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LW | 21 | 1120 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 1505 | 1555 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 5 | 205 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 208 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €30.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Yéremy Pino Laliga · 2022 | 20 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Cengiz Ünder Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Désiré Doué Ligue 1 · 2024 | 19 | €30.0M | €120M | rose |
| Julian Brandt Bundesliga · 2016 | 20 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Keita Baldé Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Santi Mina Laliga · 2018 | 23 | €20.0M | €14.5M | fell |
| Felipe Anderson Serie A · 2015 | 22 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | Real Betis | Como | €22.5M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Betis Deportivo | Real Betis | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Oct 2023 | Betis U19 | Betis Deportivo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Calavera U19 | Betis U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Betis Yth. | Calavera U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Nervión Yth. | Real Betis Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.