Ibrahima Ba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ibrahima Ba's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-5.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.0M-20.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.2M-27.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €14.3M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1655 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1332
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.2M – €27.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -5% to +157%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1655 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 21 | 1655 | 54% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1332 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 2 | 102 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1304 | 1333 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Balerdi Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Rúben Vinagre Liga Portugal · 2021 | 22 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Marcelo Saracchi Super Lig · 2020 | 22 | €9.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Zeno Van Den Bosch Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 21 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Jean-Clair Todibo Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €12.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Serdar Saatçı Liga Portugal · 2024 | 21 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Nathan Ngoy Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 21 | €3.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Mees Hilgers Eredivisie · 2022 | 21 | €2.5M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Famalicão U23 | Famalicão | Unknown | €500k |
| 3 Jul 2024 | AJEL Rufisque | Famalicão U23 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Valenciennes FC | AJEL Rufisque | Free / loan | €50k |
| 2 Oct 2023 | AJEL Rufisque | Valenciennes FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AJEL U20 | AJEL Rufisque | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.