Jan Oblak
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jan Oblak's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-10.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.9M-19.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-7.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 96.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -66% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2700 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1456
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €7.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -82% to -53%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 30 | 2700 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1456 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1501 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1481 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 28 | 2494 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1520 | 1656 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1522 | 1677 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1551 | 1728 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3396 | 99% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1531 | 1759 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1542 | 1736 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1539 | 1768 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 30 | 2651 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1556 | 1792 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1561 | 1829 | 1.17 |
| 2013/14 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | GK | 16 | 1352 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1433 | 1761 | 0.74 |
| 2012/13 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 28 | 2520 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1422 | 1451 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 1 | 1672 |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 10 | 930 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 10 | 930 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1810 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1606 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1746 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 9 | 840 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1797 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1650 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Super Cup | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1885 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1587 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 11 | 990 | 0 | 0 | 1699 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 13 | 1230 | 0 | 0 | 1706 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1654 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wojciech Szczesny Serie A · 2023 | 33 | €10.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Yassine Bounou Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €18.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Pepe Reina Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Anthony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2022 | 32 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ivan Provedel Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €14.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Samir Handanovic Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €15.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Volkan Demirel Super Lig · 2013 | 32 | €7.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Marc-André ter Stegen Laliga · 2024 | 32 | €28.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2014 | Benfica | Atlético | €16.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Rio Ave | Benfica | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 9 Sept 2012 | Benfica | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Leiria | Benfica | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 9 Sept 2011 | Benfica | Leiria | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Olhanense | Benfica | Free / loan | €750k |
| 4 Jan 2011 | Benfica | Olhanense | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2010 | Beira-Mar | Benfica | Free / loan | €750k |
| 5 Jan 2010 | Benfica | Beira-Mar | Free / loan | €750k |
| 4 Jan 2010 | NK Olimpija | Benfica | €4.0M | €750k |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Olimpija U19 | NK Olimpija | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.