Davinchi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Davinchi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-4.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-12.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 36th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €1.9M vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +215% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 65% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 698 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1446
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 65%
- Resale range (24m)
- €856k – €12.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +48% (IQR -1% to +111%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 698 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Getafe CF | Laliga | LB | 14 | 698 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1476 | 1446 | 0.95 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Toljan Bundesliga · 2014 | 20 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Ulisses Garcia Bundesliga · 2016 | 20 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Cheick Oumar Konaté Ligue 1 · 2023 | 19 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Dimitri Foulquier Ligue 1 · 2013 | 20 | €1.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Clément Michelin Ligue 1 · 2017 | 20 | €1.3M | €700k | fell |
| Luis Binks Serie A · 2022 | 21 | €1.5M | €2.2M | rose |
| Ahmet Calik Super Lig · 2013 | 19 | €500k | €3.8M | rose |
| Tim Drexler Bundesliga · 2024 | 19 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | Recr. Huelva | Getafe | €600k | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Recreativo U19 | Recr. Huelva | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Recreativo Yth. | Recreativo U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Betis Yth. | Recreativo Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.