Jordan Pickford
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jordan Pickford's performance-implied value at EUR 8.5M-22.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.6M-18.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-6.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 0
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.3M vs market €13.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3420 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1602
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €6.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -56% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1602 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1570 | 1567 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1578 | 1514 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1576 | 1475 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1576 | 1474 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 31 | 2743 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1568 | 1561 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1584 | 1525 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1546 | 1594 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Everton FC | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1539 | 1516 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | GK | 29 | 2610 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1545 | 1350 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1552 | 1476 | 1.08 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Everton FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Everton FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Patrício Premier League · 2019 | 31 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Kasper Schmeichel Premier League · 2019 | 33 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Bernd Leno Premier League · 2024 | 32 | €13.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| José Sá Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mark Flekken Premier League · 2024 | 31 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Willy Caballero Laliga · 2014 | 33 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Lukasz Fabianski Premier League · 2019 | 34 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Emiliano Martínez Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €28.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sunderland | Everton | €28.5M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Preston | Sunderland | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jul 2015 | Sunderland | Preston | Free / loan | €250k |
| 9 Mar 2015 | Bradford | Sunderland | Free / loan | €250k |
| 21 Jul 2014 | Sunderland | Bradford | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 May 2014 | Carlisle United | Sunderland | Free / loan | €250k |
| 8 Feb 2014 | Sunderland | Carlisle United | Free / loan | €250k |
| 22 Nov 2013 | Burton Albion | Sunderland | Free / loan | €150k |
| 2 Aug 2013 | Sunderland | Burton Albion | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sunderland U21 | Sunderland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 26 Mar 2013 | Alfreton | Sunderland U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Feb 2013 | Sunderland U21 | Alfreton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sunderland U18 | Sunderland U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2012 | Darlington | Sunderland U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Sunderland U18 | Darlington | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.