Diego Carlos

33 yrs · Centre-back · Brazil
Como 1907 · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.3M – €5.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.4M – €6.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.3M – €3.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.1M – €3.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.3M – €5.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.4M – €6.0M
Projected value (24 months)€1.3M – €3.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Diego Carlos's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-6.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceElite94.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.7M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-66% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €50.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1948 (57% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
95 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1589
Opponent strength
1507
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.3M – €3.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; changed club; team strength down (-72 Elo); league level down (-48 Elo); relative output up 65% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -76% to -48%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Como 1907Serie ACB27194857%100.050.06150715890.93
2024/25Aston VillaPremier LeagueCB1082824%000.000.03151616951.23
2024/25FenerbahceSuper LigCB41826%000.000.03125915030.39
2023/24Aston VillaPremier LeagueCB27181153%000.000.02160315861.14
2022/23Aston VillaPremier LeagueCB32056%000.000.05144216251.23
2021/22Sevilla FCLaligaCB34295987%300.090.07152616361.05
2020/21Sevilla FCLaligaCB33279082%100.030.03156216801.10
2019/20Sevilla FCLaligaCB35313592%200.060.06154016741.16
2018/19FC NantesLigue 1CB35314992%100.030.05145314160.82
2017/18FC NantesLigue 1CB28229267%100.040.06146814130.85
2016/17FC NantesLigue 1CB34295286%200.060.08144014230.88
2015/16GD Estoril PraiaLiga PortugalCB31274490%200.070.07139213490.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupComo 1907436001—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAston Villa6485001612
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAston Villa2117011233
2023/24Fa CupAston Villa29800—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueSevilla FC6540001597
2021/22Copa Del ReySevilla FC325400—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueSevilla FC2135001617
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueSevilla FC8720001561
2020/21Copa Del ReySevilla FC442000—
2020/21Uefa Super CupSevilla FC1120001945
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueSevilla FC8646011585
2019/20Copa Del ReySevilla FC218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Juan Jesus
Serie A · 2024
33€2.5M€1.5Mfell
Diego Llorente
Serie A · 2024
31€7.0M€2.5Mfell
Yuto Nagatomo
Super Lig · 2018
32€3.5M€800kfell
Iñigo Lekue
Laliga · 2024
31€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Maicon
Serie A · 2014
33€4.0M€1.0Mfell
Massadio Haïdara
Ligue 1 · 2023
31€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Stefan Radu
Serie A · 2017
31€6.0M€5.0Mflat
Marc Bartra
Laliga · 2022
31€6.0M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026ComoFenerbahçeFree / loan€5.0M
1 Sept 2025FenerbahçeComoFree / loan€9.5M
23 Jan 2025Aston VillaFenerbahçe€11.5M€11.0M
1 Jul 2022Sevilla FCAston Villa€31.0M€40.0M
1 Jul 2019FC NantesSevilla FC€15.0M€13.0M
1 Jul 2016EstorilFC Nantes€1.3M€1.0M
30 Jun 2015FC Porto BEstorilFree / loanData unavailable
1 Sept 2014EstorilFC Porto BFree / loanData unavailable
2 Jul 2014MadureiraEstorilFree / loanData unavailable
1 May 2014Paulista-SPMadureiraFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2014São Paulo U20Paulista-SPUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2013Desportivo U20São Paulo U20UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010América-SP U20Desportivo U20UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.