Niklas Süle
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Niklas Süle's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-10.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.2M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 81.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 487 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; relative output up 139% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -58% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 487 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 487 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 1477 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 15 | 1058 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1524 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 1508 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 1474 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2117 | 69% | 2 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 1549 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 1834 | 60% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 1493 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 20 | 1503 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 1513 | 1898 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 8 | 642 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 1471 | 1892 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 31 | 2651 | 87% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 1490 | 1839 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 1919 | 63% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 1495 | 1863 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2887 | 94% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1535 | 1592 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1525 | 1428 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 15 | 1270 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1536 | 1456 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 1877 | 61% | 4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 1558 | 1476 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 2 | 86 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1437 | 1438 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 283 | 0 | 0 | 1757 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 395 | 0 | 0 | 1719 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 675 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 7 | 514 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 7 | 537 | 1 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Super Cup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2020/21 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 6 | 331 | 0 | 0 | 1666 |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 6 | 451 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 4 | 316 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 9 | 644 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 5 | 365 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1705 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 120 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 300 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sead Kolasinac Ligue 1 · 2022 | 29 | €3.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Juan Jesus Serie A · 2023 | 32 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sabri Sarioglu Super Lig · 2013 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
| Henrique Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Sergio Escudero Laliga · 2021 | 32 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Thomas Meunier Bundesliga · 2023 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Marcel Halstenberg Bundesliga · 2022 | 31 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Alessandro Florenzi Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Dortmund | Retired | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bayern Munich | Dortmund | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hoffenheim | Bayern Munich | €20.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Hoffenheim II | Hoffenheim | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Hoffenheim U19 | Hoffenheim II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Hoffenheim U17 | Hoffenheim U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Hoffenheim Yth. | Hoffenheim U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Darmstadt Yth. | Hoffenheim Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Frankfurt Yth. | Darmstadt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Walldorf Yth. | Frankfurt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.