Ryan Christie

31 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM, RM) · Scotland
AFC Bournemouth · Premier League · Foot: left · Height: 178 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
11/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.8M – €7.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€7.3M – €23.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.1M – €4.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€625k – €20.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.8M – €7.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€7.3M – €23.7M
Projected value (24 months)€2.1M – €4.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ryan Christie's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-23.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-7.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-4.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (986 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 11

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite92.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €4.3M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-63% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
986 (29% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.18
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.19
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
92 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1643
Opponent strength
1584
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.1M – €4.6M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; team strength up (+60 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -69% to -53%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 986 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AFC BournemouthPremier LeagueCM2698629%200.180.19158416431.30
2024/25AFC BournemouthPremier LeagueCM29213162%230.210.21155715821.23
2023/24AFC BournemouthPremier LeagueCM37292085%050.150.18159114961.14
2022/23AFC BournemouthPremier LeagueAM32184154%110.100.23153814251.23
2020/21Celtic FCScottish PremiershipRM29208670%4100.600.25128615340.54
2019/20Celtic FCScottish PremiershipAM24159159%11111.240.55126216080.52
2018/19Celtic FCScottish PremiershipAM23152151%960.890.41128515250.44
2017/18Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipAM28230978%4100.550.37123514000.47
2016/17Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipAM1364419%631.260.52126914370.48
2016/17Celtic FCScottish PremiershipAM52628%100.340.18122516390.48
2015/16Inverness Caledonian Thistle FCScottish PremiershipRM13105431%360.770.39125913240.44
2015/16Celtic FCScottish PremiershipAM52206%100.410.27126915240.44
2014/15Inverness Caledonian Thistle FCScottish PremiershipAM35219764%430.290.32128513220.41
2013/14Inverness Caledonian Thistle FCScottish PremiershipAM1544813%300.600.55135513050.44

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupScotland39400—
2024/25Fa CupAFC Bournemouth216300—
2023/24Fa CupAFC Bournemouth318200—
2022/23Fa CupAFC Bournemouth16910—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueCeltic FC5392021557
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingCeltic FC2176011322
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingCeltic FC2163111327
2020/21Scottish Fa CupCeltic FC216310—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueCeltic FC6516311480
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingCeltic FC6436421383
2019/20Scottish Fa CupCeltic FC437320—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingCeltic FC2180011374
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueCeltic FC7489011589
2018/19Scottish Fa CupCeltic FC319400—
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingCeltic FC242001358
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingCeltic FC125001311
2017/18Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC544522—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingAberdeen FC4360221319
2016/17Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC26110—
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingCeltic FC157001293
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingInverness Caledonian Thistle FC2180001453
2015/16Scottish Fa CupCeltic FC1900—
2014/15Scottish Fa CupInverness Caledonian Thistle FC640200—
2013/14Scottish Fa CupInverness Caledonian Thistle FC1300—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Franco Vázquez
Laliga · 2020
31€9.5M€3.0Mfell
Philippe Coutinho
Premier League · 2023
31€10.0M€7.5Mfell
Christian Eriksen
Premier League · 2024
32€8.0M€2.5Mfell
Morgan Schneiderlin
Premier League · 2019
30€15.0M€7.0Mfell
Fred
Premier League · 2023
30€20.0M€10.0Mfell
Sung-yueng Ki
Premier League · 2019
30€6.0M€1.0Mfell
N'Golo Kanté
Premier League · 2023
32€15.0M€5.0Mfell
Marc Albrighton
Premier League · 2020
31€8.0M€2.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Aug 2021CelticBournemouth€2.9M€7.0M
14 May 2018Aberdeen FCCelticFree / loan€700k
1 Jul 2017CelticAberdeen FCFree / loan€600k
31 May 2017Aberdeen FCCelticFree / loan€600k
24 Jan 2017CelticAberdeen FCFree / loan€600k
1 Jan 2016Inverness CTCelticFree / loan€600k
2 Sept 2015CelticInverness CTFree / loan€250k
1 Sept 2015Inverness CTCeltic€680k€250k
1 Jul 2013Inverness U20Inverness CTUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Inverness U17Inverness U20UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.