
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Abdülkerim Bardakcı's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-8.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €6.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -66% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2455 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1501
- Opponent strength
- 1247
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 66% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -68% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 30 | 2455 | 80% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1247 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2758 | 85% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 1281 | 1557 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 27 | 2213 | 65% | 4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 1292 | 1597 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 30 | 2655 | 82% | 3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1293 | 1535 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 33 | 2970 | 87% | 5 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 1240 | 1330 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 37 | 3316 | 92% | 2 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1278 | 1225 | 0.37 |
| 2016/17 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 6 | 364 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1421 | 1334 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | DM | 7 | 370 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 1355 | 1466 | 0.64 |
| 2013/14 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | LB | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1591 | 1404 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 11 | 968 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Turkiye | 3 | 266 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 10 | 896 | 1 | 1 | 1479 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 6 | 469 | 1 | 0 | 1396 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 2 | 125 | 1 | 0 | 1502 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Konyaspor | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1560 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Elabdellaoui Super League 1 · 2020 | 29 | €4.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Clinton Mata Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Tamás Kádár Premier Liga · 2019 | 29 | €4.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Rúben Semedo Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €8.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Gernot Trauner Eredivisie · 2022 | 30 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Moisés Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Papa Gueye Premier Liga · 2016 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Douglas Santos Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Konyaspor | Galatasaray | €2.8M | €5.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Altay SK | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €400k |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Konyaspor | Altay SK | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Denizlispor | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €500k |
| 5 Jul 2018 | Konyaspor | Denizlispor | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Giresunspor | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €250k |
| 14 Jan 2018 | Konyaspor | Giresunspor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 8 Jan 2018 | Samsunspor | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Aug 2017 | Konyaspor | Samsunspor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Samsunspor | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 13 Jan 2017 | Konyaspor | Samsunspor | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Adana Demirspor | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 21 Aug 2014 | Konyaspor | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | A. Selcukluspor | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 21 Jan 2014 | Konyaspor | A. Selcukluspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 10 Aug 2011 | Konyaspor Yth | Konyaspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Oct 2009 | Zonguldak Yth | Konyaspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.