Abdülkerim Bardakcı

32 yrs · Centre-back (also DM, LB) · Türkiye
Galatasaray · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€6.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.8M – €5.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.9M – €8.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.6M – €3.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.1M – €6.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.8M – €5.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.9M – €8.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.6M – €3.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Abdülkerim Bardakcı's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-8.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 11

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh80.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.4M vs market €6.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-66% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2455 (80% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
81 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1501
Opponent strength
1247
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.6M – €3.4M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 66% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -68% to -29%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26GalatasaraySuper LigCB30245580%010.040.03124715010.40
2024/25GalatasaraySuper LigCB32275885%320.160.07128115570.39
2023/24GalatasaraySuper LigCB27221365%400.160.08129215970.45
2022/23GalatasaraySuper LigCB30265582%330.200.14129315350.50
2021/22KonyasporSuper LigCB33297087%530.240.19124013300.42
2020/21KonyasporSuper LigCB37331692%240.160.15127812250.37
2016/17KonyasporSuper LigCB636412%000.000.05142113340.62
2015/16KonyasporSuper LigDM737012%100.240.13135514660.64
2013/14KonyasporSuper LigLB1451%000.000.14159114040.78

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueGalatasaray11968001634
2025/26World CupTurkiye326600—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray10896111479
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingGalatasaray184001516
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueGalatasaray6540001662
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingGalatasaray6469101396
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray2125101502
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueKonyaspor2180001560

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Omar Elabdellaoui
Super League 1 · 2020
29€4.8M€1.3Mfell
Clinton Mata
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
30€8.0M€4.0Mfell
Tamás Kádár
Premier Liga · 2019
29€4.5M€1.5Mfell
Rúben Semedo
Super League 1 · 2021
27€8.0M€3.2Mfell
Gernot Trauner
Eredivisie · 2022
30€5.0M€3.5Mfell
Moisés
Premier Liga · 2024
29€4.5M€4.0Mflat
Papa Gueye
Premier Liga · 2016
32€4.0M€1.0Mfell
Douglas Santos
Premier Liga · 2022
28€16.0M€12.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022KonyasporGalatasaray€2.8M€5.0M
3 Aug 2020Altay SKKonyasporFree / loan€400k
2 Aug 2019KonyasporAltay SKFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2019DenizlisporKonyasporFree / loan€500k
5 Jul 2018KonyasporDenizlisporFree / loan€250k
30 Jun 2018GiresunsporKonyasporFree / loan€250k
14 Jan 2018KonyasporGiresunsporFree / loan€1.0M
8 Jan 2018SamsunsporKonyasporFree / loan€1.0M
9 Aug 2017KonyasporSamsunsporFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2017SamsunsporKonyasporFree / loan€1.0M
13 Jan 2017KonyasporSamsunsporFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2015Adana DemirsporKonyasporFree / loan€1.0M
21 Aug 2014KonyasporAdana DemirsporFree / loan€75k
30 Jun 2014A. SelcuklusporKonyasporFree / loan€100k
21 Jan 2014KonyasporA. SelcuklusporFree / loan€100k
10 Aug 2011Konyaspor YthKonyasporUnknownData unavailable
15 Oct 2009Zonguldak YthKonyaspor YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.