Raphael Sallinger
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Raphael Sallinger's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €242k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2610 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1212
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €199k – €463k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -35% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 38 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 74%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 29 | 2610 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1212 | 1280 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelle Roos Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 31 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Yevgen Volynets Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €800k | €750k | flat |
| Radoslaw Cierzniak Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Munir El Kajoui Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Michael McGovern Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 31 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Nicolai Larsen Superliga · 2020 | 29 | €475k | €500k | flat |
| Andreas Gianniotis Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Patrik Carlgren Superliga · 2020 | 28 | €650k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | TSV Hartberg | Hibernian FC | €360k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Wolfsberger AC | TSV Hartberg | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | K'lautern II | Wolfsberger AC | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jan 2013 | SC Kalsdorf | K'lautern II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 Sept 2012 | FC Welzenegg | SC Kalsdorf | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Welzenegg Jgd | FC Welzenegg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2007 | FC Kärnten Jgd | Welzenegg Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.