
Zeki Çelik
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zeki Çelik's performance-implied value at EUR 10.4M-29.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.7M-16.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-11.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.51x the positional average in the league (2731 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €10.7M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2731 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1638
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €11.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -61% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RM | 34 | 2731 | 80% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1499 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RM | 31 | 2262 | 66% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1510 | 1668 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RM | 17 | 663 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1513 | 1618 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RM | 24 | 1504 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1482 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RB | 32 | 2699 | 79% | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1427 | 1540 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RB | 29 | 2389 | 70% | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 1443 | 1610 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RB | 23 | 2070 | 82% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1461 | 1516 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RB | 34 | 2977 | 87% | 1 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1464 | 1543 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 10 | 816 | 0 | 2 | 1497 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Turkiye | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 10 | 776 | 1 | 1 | 1542 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 11 | 813 | 0 | 2 | 1566 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 8 | 423 | 0 | 0 | 1609 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 7 | 591 | 0 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 4 | 332 | 1 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1713 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gökhan Inler Serie A · 2014 | 30 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Remo Freuler Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €25.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Keisuke Honda Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €17.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Javi García Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Bryan Cristante Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Pontus Wernbloom Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Baptiste Santamaria Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Valentin Rongier Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €22.0M | €9.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2022 | Lille | Roma | €7.4M | €18.0M |
| 7 Jul 2018 | Istanbulspor | Lille | €2.5M | €800k |
| 25 Aug 2016 | Bursaspor | Istanbulspor | €1.3M | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Bursa Nilüfer | Bursaspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 14 Aug 2015 | Bursaspor | Bursa Nilüfer | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Bursaspor U21 | Bursaspor | Unknown | €100k |
| 21 Dec 2014 | Bursaspor U19 | Bursaspor U21 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Bursaspor U17 | Bursaspor U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bursaspor U16 | Bursaspor U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Bursaspor Yth | Bursaspor U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.