Zeki Çelik

29 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Türkiye
Associazione Sportiva Roma · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€14.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€6.7M – €16.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€10.4M – €29.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.1M – €11.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€6.0M – €22.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€6.7M – €16.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€10.4M – €29.6M
Projected value (24 months)€4.1M – €11.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€14.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Zeki Çelik's performance-implied value at EUR 10.4M-29.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.7M-16.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-11.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.51x the positional average in the league (2731 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 9

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh89.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €10.7M vs market €14.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-50% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2731 (80% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
90 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1638
Opponent strength
1499
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.1M – €11.4M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -61% to -22%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ARM34273180%120.100.11149916380.93
2024/25Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ARM31226266%020.080.10151016680.99
2023/24Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ARM1766319%000.000.11151316180.98
2022/23Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ARM24150444%010.060.11148215780.94
2021/22LOSC LilleLigue 1RB32269979%230.170.12142715400.86
2020/21LOSC LilleLigue 1RB29238970%330.230.16144316100.75
2019/20LOSC LilleLigue 1RB23207082%030.130.15146115160.82
2018/19LOSC LilleLigue 1RB34297787%150.180.17146415430.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma10816021497
2025/26World CupTurkiye216500—
2025/26Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma19000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma10776111542
2024/25Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma213500—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma11813021566
2023/24Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma14500—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma8423001609
2022/23Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma210500—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille7591001677
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille4332101656
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille6540001713

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Gökhan Inler
Serie A · 2014
30€14.0M€6.0Mfell
Remo Freuler
Serie A · 2021
29€25.0M€8.0Mfell
Keisuke Honda
Premier Liga · 2014
28€17.0M€7.0Mfell
Javi García
Premier Liga · 2016
29€12.0M€4.0Mfell
Bryan Cristante
Serie A · 2022
27€20.0M€20.0Mflat
Pontus Wernbloom
Premier Liga · 2014
28€10.0M€10.0Mflat
Baptiste Santamaria
Ligue 1 · 2022
27€14.0M€10.0Mfell
Valentin Rongier
Ligue 1 · 2023
29€22.0M€9.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
5 Jul 2022LilleRoma€7.4M€18.0M
7 Jul 2018IstanbulsporLille€2.5M€800k
25 Aug 2016BursasporIstanbulspor€1.3M€100k
30 Jun 2016Bursa NilüferBursasporFree / loan€100k
14 Aug 2015BursasporBursa NilüferFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2015Bursaspor U21BursasporUnknown€100k
21 Dec 2014Bursaspor U19Bursaspor U21Unknown€100k
1 Jul 2014Bursaspor U17Bursaspor U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Bursaspor U16Bursaspor U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Bursaspor YthBursaspor U16UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.